business analyst

"Rather than undermining humans, we are much better off thinking hard about how to upskill ourselves and learn how to work alongside machines ..."

Graeme Codrington, Futurist at TomorrowToday on technology replacing the very core professionals within 10 years. A Digital Revolution!

Via Susan Bainbridge ‏@eddebainbridge

One of the things that happens when you write books about the future is you get to watch your predictions fail. This is nothing new, of course, but what’s different this time around is the direction of those failures.

Used to be, folks were way too bullish about technology and way too optimistic with their predictions. Flying cars and Mars missions being two classic—they should be here by now—examples. The Jetsons being another. But today, the exact opposite is happening.

STEVEN KOTLER, 07/02/2015

The Internet is a moving target, constantly changing and evolving. As I contemplate its likely trajectory over the next 10 years, I hope whatever form it takes, it continues to exhibit the original values we established in its earliest years. These include the principles of ethics, trust, openness, free access, and shared content. However, I do fear and worry that we are already seeing trends toward certain governments controlling Internet access, conflicts between privacy and security, content and pricing control by a few large players, and more.

DR. LEONARD KLEINROCK, 18/04/2014

A McKinsey Global Institute study shows how innovations that get the most hype aren’t necessarily the ones that will make the biggest difference economically.

This talk draws on the latest global modeling research to construct a sweeping thought experiment on what our world will be like in 2050. The World in 2050 combines the lessons of geography and history with state-of-the-art model projections and analytical data-everything from climate dynamics and resource stocks to age distributions and economic growth projections.

Laurence C. Smith  takes as big forces demographics, natural resources, globalization and climate change.

- slowing but still very fast growth rate. developed world: dropping

aging: esp. china

- urbanization: demand for electricity, metals,... (esp. growing word)

   -> relying on globalized companies <-> forgetting basic skills
- water stressed regions will be even more so ("resource wars")

- 1893: phyiscs of climate change prooven -> real problem

   -> greatest uncertainty in prediction

   -> long time to see the results / difference between actions

   -> multiplied in north regions ("greenland-potatoes", polar->grizzly)
   -> arctic ice shelf; shipping - warmer winters

   -> greenland cruiseship tourism <-> permafrost, ice roads melting

- oil and gas in the arctic (est. 13%oil, 30%gas prv. undisc.)

   -> conflicts about territory <-> UNCLOS article 76, geol. diplomacy

   -> Russias oil / gas importance <-> unconventional sources

   -> Canada

- current trend of globalization continuing (north countries =/ Russia)

"How’s your leadership working on in your VUCA world (Volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous)? "

Liz Guthridge has written a great post on leading in a VUCA world; VCUA stands for volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous, a term coined by the US Army War College in the weeks before September 11, 2001.  

Liz & I discussed the need for collaboration and community across disciplines to succeed in a VUCA world in connection with our recent panel + Open Space presentation we did for a global change conference on Success Secrets of Trusted Change Advisors.

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VUCA can provide threats [and] offer opportunities, especially if you translate VUCA as “vision, understanding, clarity and agility.” ~ Dr. Bob Johansen

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Here are some excerpts of her take on the insightful presentation by one of our keynote presenters:

"Leading in a VUCA world" is a popular phrase with Bob Johansen, a distinguished fellow and former president of Institute for the Future.

According to Dr. Johansen, who shared his 2020 forecast at the Association of Change Management Professionals global conference this week, our VUCA world is not going away. In fact it’s just going to spin faster during the next decade.

In his talk “External Future Forces That Will Disrupt the Practice of Change Management,” Dr. Johansen noted that VUCA is not necessarily doom and gloom. While VUCA can provide threats, it also can offer opportunities, especially if you translate VUCA as “vision, understanding, clarity and agility.”

As for his two big 2022 predictions for organizational change agents, they are:

1. “The digital natives (now 16 years or younger) will create new practices to make change through gaming.” (The other key phrase besides gaming in this sentence is “make.” Dr. Johansen predicts that a culture of makers will drive the next generation of change. And as a result, leaders need to show the “maker instinct” trait.)

2. “Reciprocity-based innovation will focus on the economic, social and psychological value of reciprocity.” (Two important traits for leaders are smart-mob organizing and commons creating. Think Creative Commons.)

Dr. Johansen challenged the 825 of us in attendance to figure out how to help people and organizations adapt to these changes and others.

To do this, we should watch our terms and our questions.  Read Liz's full post here.