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Joe Biden announced huge new tariffs on imports from China, in a move that Donald Trump says does not go far enough 
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UK manufacturers and retailers are not yet passing on all the costs of diverting ships round southern Africa – but can that last?
Graham Watson's insight:
The ongoing trouble in the Red Sea has meant longer journey times and increased shipping costs; this Observer article looks at the implications of this for global inflation noting that, as yet, retailers have yet to pass on the majority of these costs.
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The move follows Huawei's release of an AI-enabled computer powered by a chip created by Intel.
Graham Watson's insight:
Again, the US-China trade war rumbles on - this time the Americans have placed restrictions on the export of some computer chips to Huawei, designed to stop the company accelerating its development of artificial intelligence.
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Bloc ‘will not waver’ from making tough decisions to protect economy and security, says Ursula von der Leyen
Graham Watson's insight:
Is there another trade war in the offing, with the news that the EU is weighing up whether to impose protectionist barriers to protect the electric car, steel and renewable energy markets from cheap Chinese imports?
The EU authorities claim that Chinese state support in these sectors means that there is unfair competition in these markets and that, as a result, European firms and European jobs are under threat.
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May 7, 5:32 AM
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Employers in the US added 175,000 jobs in the US in April, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%.
Graham Watson's insight:
Much like the UK, it seems as though the US is currently stuck in limbo, unable to decide whether to fully recover or not. Having seen the Federal Reserve keep interest rates at 5.25-5.5%, the latest US jobs data saw comparatively few new jobs created an unemployment rise.
As a result, some are speculating that interest rate cuts might be back on the agenda sooner rather than later.
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May 5, 7:25 PM
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France, Spain, Germany and Italy helped by lower inflation and prospect of interest rate cuts
Graham Watson's insight:
Hurrah! Europe has exited recession, with the big four economies - France, Spain, Germany and Italy - helping push Eurozone growth for the first quarter to 0.3%, exceeding expectations. It seems that the prospect of falling inflation and accommodative monetary policy mean that it will slowly recover, although growth will remain moderate.
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The world's largest economy grew less than expected but rising inflation may delay a rate cut.
Graham Watson's insight:
Mixed data from the US: economic growth is good-ish, at an annualised rate of 1.6%, although lower than expected, but inflation for the first three months of the year is 3.4%.
The latter means that there's little imminent prospect of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, and thus similarly little prospect of other central banks following suit.
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World’s billionaires should pay minimum 2% wealth tax, say G20 ministers | Inequality | The Guardian
Brazil, Germany, Spain and South Africa sign motion for fairer tax system to deliver £250bn a year extra to fight poverty and climate crisis
Graham Watson's insight:
The latest meeting of G20 ministers has called for a 2% global wealth tax for the world's 3,000 billionaires, arguing that it could create a fund to reduce poverty, fight climate change and promote sustainable development.
It seems as though the call for a fairer tax system is an annual event. It's easy to do, far harder to implement, not least when, you suspect, the political will just isn't there.
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São Tomé and Príncipe is a small island country located in the Gulf of Guinea. It is covered by tropical forests, coral reefs, and impressive beaches. Extreme phenomena related to climate change, such as strong sea disturbances, coastal erosion, land collapses, and increasingly frequent river, rainfall, and coastal floods, pose a growing threat to communities, public and private infrastructure, and the country's economy.
To address these challenges, the World Bank is working with the Government of São Tomé and Príncipe to implement the West Africa Coastal Areas Coastal Adaptation Program, with the aim to enhance the resilience of coastal communities by addressing key socio-economic and environmental factors. These factors contribute to the vulnerability of populations, ecosystems, and coastal assets, making them susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate-related and man-made pressures.
Graham Watson's insight:
This World Bank mini doc looks at attempts to increase the resilience of infrastructure in the island state of Sao Tome and Prinicipe. The aim of such schemes is to counter the effects of climate change and extreme weather in this developing economy, and in doing so underpinning sustainable development.
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IMF has revised up growth forecasts but medium-term prospects remain poor as globalisation goes into reverse
Graham Watson's insight:
Larry Elliott, always keen to publish Monday's article, highlights the changing global order, with current crises seemingly spelling the end of the US-led world order, and the end of the globalization we became familiar with in the first decade of the 21st century.
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May 6, 5:35 AM
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The public supports it, and even the rich are calling for it. We must prevent a deeper slide into global inequality, says activist and film-maker Abigail Disney
Graham Watson's insight:
The annual plea by one of the Patriotic Millionaires for higher rates of taxation. Or extreme virtue-signalling for some.
But perhaps some members of the super-rich are of the view that the state provides them with infrastructure, social cohesion and public goods and they think that they these goods are being sold to them for below their market value? It could be worse: they could be campaigning for public office.
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Exclusive: Under Whitehall blueprint for water company some lenders could lose up to 40% of their money
Graham Watson's insight:
More on the future of Thames Water, with the Guardian seeming to have seen a blueprint for its renationalisation, involving the government picking up the tab for the majority of the £15bn debt racked up. Of course, the executives in charge of what might be one of the largest corporate disasters in recent history will, of course, have trousered significant rewards for dreadful performance.
It willl be entertaining to see how this plays out. I'm prepared to bet that the current government will be doing its best to keep a zombie firm alive until a General Election. What an advert for privatisation!
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A key member of the US central bank, Raphael Bostic, tells the BBC rates might only ease "at the end of 2024".
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems that US interest rates aren't going to fall any time soon, according to one rate setter; this has wider implications for the global economy. Higher interest repayments on dollar-denominated debt, for a start and it also means that other central banks are likely to be wary when cutting rates.
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The White House said they were a response to unfair policies and intended to protect US jobs.
Graham Watson's insight:
The trade war continues with the US imposing sizeable tariff on Chinese electric cars - from 25% to 100% - and solar panels - from 25% to 50% - too. In practical terms, it's difficult to see much immediate effect, given the low level of Chinese imports in many of these sectors, but it will be interesting, and more meaningful, if the EU follows suit.
Of course, whilst the tariffs have raised more than $200bn, you need to remember that it's paid by US consumers and not Chinese firms, something that seems to have escaped the former President.
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Singapore has transformed itself from a colonial trading port to a buzzing financial centre in just a matter of decades. It’s been held up as an example of how small countries can seek a pathway to rapid growth and development. So what’s the city-state’s formula for success? And as Lawrence Wong takes over from Lee Hsien Loong as prime minister, what must he do to maintain it?
Graham Watson's insight:
The Singapore story: how has Singapore grown so rapidly, overtaking the UK and the US in terms of per capita GDP? This Bloomberg clip highlights how its location, and the classic approach of moving up the value chain from labour intensive manufactures to higher value-added activities, which these days means financial services and the tech sector.
However, it's debatable whether this approach can easily be replicated in other locations.
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Bureau of Labor Statistics releases latest estimate of how much labor receives of national income, showing bleak decline
Graham Watson's insight:
This Guardian article looks at the functional distribution of income and highlights the fact that the share of income going to capital, relative to labour has risen, heightening income inequality.
In common, with most parts of the world, it seems as though productivity gains result in higher wages for executives but little change in the wages of the ordinary worker.
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Traders suffer a case of déjà-vu as any savings are wiped out with a new currency called the Zig.
Graham Watson's insight:
Evidence of the importance of a sound currency to a successful economy comes from Zimbabwe where the introduction of a new local currency has caused a degree of chaos.
The lack of faith in Zimbabwean currency is reflected in the fact that many traders already only accept US dollars, and use the local currency to give change. However, a shortage of the new money - the Zig - which stands for "Zimbabwe gold" - means that even menial transactions for things like bags of peanuts have become increasingly fraught.
The launch of the currency is another attempt to try and rein in inflation; the evidence, so far, is that it isn't working.
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May 5, 7:15 PM
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The US central bank has left interest rates unchanged again, noting a "lack of further progress" on inflation.
Graham Watson's insight:
The Federal Reserve has stayed its hand, keeping interest rates unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5% because of a lack of progress towards reaching the inflation target. US inflation is currently 3.5% and has been stubborn in falling any further, so the Federal Reserve are cautious.
And what the Fed does, other central banks generally follow - Bagpuss economics, if you will - meaning that interest rates in the Eurozone and the UK might stay higher for longer too.
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Dublin records near-doubling of tax revenue from duties on imports of clothing, food and other goods from Great Britain
Graham Watson's insight:
At least it's not the case that everyone loses out from Brexit! The Irish government has received a 700m euro windfall from increased customs duties as once free trade between Britain and Eire has been replaced by trade with tariffs.
So, despite it costing consumers more to buy goods, the Irish government now have more revenues - in what sense is this welfare enhancing though? Or isn't it?
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Finance chiefs say higher taxes for the super-rich are key to battling global inequality and climate crisis
Graham Watson's insight:
And here's the accompanying letter from the Finance Ministers concerned...
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With the support of Austria's Federal Ministry of Finance and the World Bank, the Climate Support Facility's Western Balkans Plus Program has been promoting climate action and green growth across the countries of the Western Balkan Six since 2020 and expanded its activities intro Central Asia in 2023. This program shows that international collaboration, innovation, and timely funding can enable countries to address crucial climate and environmental challenges and build a more sustainable, resilient future for all.
Graham Watson's insight:
Another World Bank clip looking at climate action, this time in the Western Balkans. Since its launch in 2020, it has focused on improving air quality, encouraging the green transition and the adverse effects of climate change.
As a result, it's been rolled out into central Asia too.
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Chinese firms are racing to set up factories in Mexico to bypass US tariffs and sanctions.
Graham Watson's insight:
I'm not sure I approve of the tone of this article: why is Mexico a 'backdoor' to Chinese firms manufacturing furniture in Mexico? Isn't Chinese FDI into Mexico providing jobs, training, import revenues and taxes to Mexico?
I can only assume that US FDI allowing US-owned firms to manufacture overseas are going to be portrayed as a backdoor too. Imagine how many backdoors the US has into the EU - it's scarcely worth bothering with the front door.
And if it provides US citizens with greater choice, and cheaper furniture then the only people that seem to lose out are US furniture manufacturers - of whom there are far fewer than there were - and the people who work for them.
So rather than portray the Chinese investment in Mexico as malign, why doesn't the BBC celebrate the fact that it shows the dynamism, and potential gains from trade.
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Chief economist says common framework has failed to provide any new money to world’s poorest countries since it was set up in 2020
Graham Watson's insight:
The Chief Economist of the World Bank has gone public in stating that the G20's scheme for providing debt relief to developing economies has singularly failed to provide any meaningful funds since 2020.
It appears that the failure to include China and private bondholders in negotiations means that it is difficult to reach agreement on providing debt relief. That said, it seems slightly odd that his equivalent figure at the IMF has a contradictory position arguing that it's helped Ghana and Zambia out of debt crises.
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Kristalina Georgieva says Kyiv will need $42bn of financial support this year as G7 considers ways to use seized Russian assets
Graham Watson's insight:
That's why they earn the big bucks: Kristalina Georgieva asserts that the Ukraine war remains a barrier to growth. I love it when pronouncements like this get air time. I would never have been able to figure this sort of thing out myself.
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China’s economy grew much faster than expected at the start of 2024 - up by 5.3% - boosted by its focus on green manufacturing. The country has invested in producing high end products such as electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels which are sold around the world. But that has led to tensions with the West, with other countries fearing they are becoming too reliant on hi-tech Chinese goods which are essential to a low-carbon future. The US and the EU accuse China of unfairly subsidising these industries, allowing them to flood the world market with cheap green goods.
Graham Watson's insight:
This clip from the BBC News looks at the current state of China; it's surprising recent growth and the pivot towards green manufacturing, something that's caused increased trade tension with the West.
It's part of the China paradox: a major producer of carbon emissions, and yet also a world leader in adopting new, and greener, technology and renewable energy.
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A little look at the increase in US tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles among other items. It looks at the reasons for tariffs - not economic - and their likely implications, not least if China retaliates.