Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics

The first-rate historian, Timothy Garton-Ash, highlights one of the fundamental contradictions of Brexit. For all the Prime Minister's claims of an oven-ready deal, and to have got Brexit done, all the recent deal has done is lock Britain into a perpetual state of negotiation with Brussels. 

And this seems highly likely: we've not yet reached agreement on services, and trade has yet to settle, what with red tape causing concerns in a few areas. All of which imposes an opportunity cost - and this alone should be one of the reasons why the notion of a Brexit dividend is, and always has been, so fanciful.

Another less than optimistic view of any future UK-EU trade deal.

Brexit confusion - who would have thought it?

And there's more...

Newsnight looks at the prospect of a no deal Brexit, with little chance of a deal being completed today.

Listening to Boris Johnson is remarkably depressing; a man utterly bereft of either depth or integrity. 

Phillip Inman is of the view that it doesn't seem to be a propitious time for political brinkmanship - with the UK economy in the biggest slump for 300 years. 

The narrative of "holding all the cards" has probably changed - although even in 2016, I'd suggested that it was utterly inappropriate - I suspect our current position is closer to "what are these cards of which you speak?"

Oh, twist the knife, why don't you? 

Well, if we want sovereignty, we have to accept that the EU must be allowed sovereignty too, so provided we agree to maintaining a 'level playing field' during any no deal transition period, the EU will legislate to permit British transport access to the EU.

I suspect the grim reality of holding 72 off suit in a game of Texas Hold'em is starting to hit home. 

Faisal Islam identifies the major sticking point in Brexit negotiations and explains why it's so controversial. It's all about the 'level playing field' and trying to do away with the need for future tariff measures in the event that on party tries to deviate from an 'acceptable norm'.

The EU fear is that the UK will use its position outside the EU to lower some standards, perhaps with regard to state aid, giving its firms a competitive advantage - which from their perspective doesn't strike me as unreasonable. Of course, if you've spent the last four years pretending that you hold all of the cards, climbing down from that position looks weak. Or perhaps reflects the fact that you'll have to admit that you were lying all along. 

Two sides of the fishing debate are aired in this Guardian piece. It seems the bulk of Brixham's fishermen are pro-Brexit, but there's one notable exception who thinks that Brexit itself is a disaster for the sector. 

From my perspective - albeit a distant one, and my forefathers were actually Morecambe Bay prawnermen - there are two things to note.

In the first instance, the relatively small number of fishermen - and their contribution to GDP. What makes fishermen different to miners, or shipbuilders, or any other sector of industry that has seen sectoral decline? Secondly, the notion that "We want our water and quotas back" is an interesting one. I'm under the impression, perhaps erroneously, that a good number of the quotas owned by EU fishermen have been sold to them by British fishermen, a voluntary exchange. 

Is there more to this than meets the eye?

I'll just leave this here - apparently, the PM wants an 'overview' of the outstanding differences. Proof, if it were needed that he's got his finger on the pulse...

And business is pretty unequivocal about the prospects of a no deal Brexit. Uncertainty. And we all know what uncertainty breeds...

The car industry and Brexit - Toyota reiterate that a no deal Brexit will be very negative. 

No surprises here. 

Another day of talks, another day closer to Brexit...

Progress in Brexit talks? It seems that we've started to relax our demands regarding fishing rights - and started to treat the sector more appropriately. It contributes as much to the UK economy as Games Workshop, apparently.

But will it be enough to get a Brexit deal for Christmas.

This article does what it says on the tin...

Not only were the EU's red lines clear, so was the fact that we'd end up in this position. Especially since a certain person became Prime Minister...

More Brexit: why is a deal so important?

The BBC's Simon Jack summarises the current Brexit position - and whilst there's little in the way of technical economics here, it's a perceptive view of the prevailing uncertainty. 

More Newsnight coverage of the Brexit negotiations - will we leave without a deal. It seems increasingly likely. 

Newsnight on the state of Brexit negotiations...

Brexit: what remains to be done is listed in the Guardian. 

It seems that there are five outstanding issues to be tackled with fishing and the level playing field to the fore. But will it be deal or no deal? And who's the banker?

What could go wrong at a dinner between the Prime Minister and the European Commission President?

Alternatively, what could go right? It seems that the Brexit deal comes down to this. I wonder if there's fish on the menu.

Good news! I look forward to a carefully stage-managed announcement of some form of progress by the weekend then.

But little immediate prospect of a deal.

A brief look at today's reaction to the ongoing struggles to conclude a Brexit deal, with the pound sliding to a six-week low. 

If this continues, further movement in this direction - and think about the implications of a depreciation for the UK.

Yawn...