Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics
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Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics
A brief overview of relevant articles for IB and A-Level all relating to the UK economy
Curated by Graham Watson
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The government’s ‘Treasury brain’ has got the UK in an economic mess. How can we cure it? | Fran Boait | The Guardian

The government’s ‘Treasury brain’ has got the UK in an economic mess. How can we cure it? | Fran Boait | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Despite all the evidence that privatisation has been a disaster and investment is needed, the department remains in thrall to discredited financial orthodoxy, says Fran Boait of campaign group Positive Money
Graham Watson's insight:

An interesting article about the nature of policymaking in the Treasury, with Fran Boait arguing that a peculiar mix of economic orthodoxies - in favour of privatisation and yet also committed to "arbitrary fiscal rules" - ensure that the UK under-commits to public investment, to the extent that with have the lowest level of public sector investment in G7. 

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Why does Britain have the worst inflation in the G7? - BBC Newsnight

The Bank of England is watching UK inflation carefully, and the latest official figures show that inflation slowed in April by less than expected to 8.7%.

Britain’s ‘core inflation’ - a measure which doesn’t include volatile components such as energy and food - is the highest of the G7 countries at 6.8% and is going in the wrong direction.

Nationwide building society has warned that rises in mortgage interest rates - closely tied to increases in the Bank of England’s rate that has been raised to try and control inflation - could hit the housing market.

So why is inflation in the UK so stubborn compared to similar countries? Newsnight’s Economics Editor Ben Chu reports.

Graham Watson's insight:

A Newsnight clip looking at why British inflation exceeds those of any other G7 country, with core inflation still 6.8% and still rising. So what factors contribute to this - and are they UK specific? 

 

Well, farming in the UK is necessarily limited by scale, and the cost of importing has undoubtedly risen post-Brexit. The cost of manufacturing, particularly in labour-intensive sectors previously  dependent upon migrant workers, is up as is the price of services, notably insurance. 

 

Is Britain back to being the 'sick old man of Europe'? It currently looks like it. Not least because of the lasting effects of COVID on the British workforce.   

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Corporation tax: Jeremy Hunt confirms rise to 25% from April

Corporation tax: Jeremy Hunt confirms rise to 25% from April | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The chancellor confirms corporation tax will go up but opposition is expected from some Tory MPs.
Graham Watson's insight:

Corporation tax is set to go up again - in the face of some Conservative opposition - with the marginal rate of corporation tax rising from 19% to 25%. Even there, it represents the lowest corporation tax rate in the G7.

 

However, there's a sweetener: "every pound invested by businesses in IT equipment, plants or machinery to be deducted in full from taxable profits." It's claimed that this represents the equivalent of a annual £9bn cut in corporation tax. 

 

 

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Why is the UK struggling more than other countries?

Why is the UK struggling more than other countries? | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The UK is the only G7 nation whose economy is smaller than it was before the Covid pandemic.
Graham Watson's insight:

Why might that be? Let me think. Brexit? 

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IMF: UK set for slowest growth of G7 countries in 2023

IMF: UK set for slowest growth of G7 countries in 2023 | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The IMF cuts its UK forecast for 2023 and says the global economy is "teetering on the edge" of recession.
Graham Watson's insight:

The IMF - not always correct - has identified that the UK economy is going to be the slowest growing of all G7 economies in 2023, cutting its previous 1.2% forecast to 0.5%.

 

However, the overall forecast for the global economy is increasingly pessimistic, with global growth forecast for 2022 to be 3.2% and an increased risk of a global recession.  

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UK set for slowest growth in G7 as Ukraine war hits global economy

UK set for slowest growth in G7 as Ukraine war hits global economy | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The Ukraine war will "severely set back" global growth with the UK hit harder than most, the IMF says.
Graham Watson's insight:

The IMF have forecast that the UK is going experience lower than expected growth this year - with growth revised down to 3.7% from the previous forecast of 4.7% - and will be the slowest growing G7 economy in 2023 - not least as a result of the Ukraine conflict.

 

Overall, global economic growth is now forecast to be 3.6% - again, down by nearly 1% this year.  

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Sharp slowdown in UK growth lends Sunak’s plan a hollow ring | Economic growth (GDP) | The Guardian

Sharp slowdown in UK growth lends Sunak’s plan a hollow ring | Economic growth (GDP) | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Analysis: The fact that figures for Q3 compare unfavourably with other large economies must worry the chancellor
Graham Watson's insight:

The Guardian take on yesterday's disappointing growth figures - noting our comparatively poor performance relative to other G7 economies, and suggests that Brexit has played a part in hampering the recovery. 

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Scooped by Graham Watson
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Agreement to tax Google and Facebook is historic. Will Brexit Britain stay onside? | Rishi Sunak | The Guardian

Agreement to tax Google and Facebook is historic. Will Brexit Britain stay onside? | Rishi Sunak | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The UK chancellor’s supporters in the Tory party advocate low corporate taxes, so the G7 proposals put him in an awkward position
Graham Watson's insight:

Still more on the minimum global corporate tax deal, although I think that Phillip Inman gets this wrong - the proposal to agree a minimum corporate tax rate of 15% is currently lower than the current rate of corporation tax in the UK and below the original plan for 21%.

 

And remember, it's the outliers - the Irelands, the Cypruses and the Hungaries of this world, whose corporate tax rates are well below this, that may ultimately sink the whole proposal. 

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UK economy in growth ‘doom loop’ after decades of underinvestment | Economic growth (GDP) | The Guardian

UK economy in growth ‘doom loop’ after decades of underinvestment | Economic growth (GDP) | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Institute for Public Policy Research points to £500bn-plus underspend compared with other advanced economies
Graham Watson's insight:

The Institute for Public Policy arguably sums up the last 40 years: £500bn plus under-investment has resulted in low growth. It argues that British investment is the lowest in the G7 and 27th out of 30 in the OECD, ahead of only Poland, Luxembourg and Greece. 

 

The solution? The IPPR argues that the government should be looking for public investment to "crowd in" private sector investment, giving confidence to companies investing in the UK. That said, is there much evidence for this? 

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UK to be one of worst performing economies this year, predicts IMF

UK to be one of worst performing economies this year, predicts IMF | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The International Monetary Fund predicts the UK economy will shrink this year, alongside Germany.
Graham Watson's insight:

The UK is forecast to be the worst performing economy, both in the G7 and the larger G20 group of nations in 2023, with the IMF predicting that the economy is going to shrink by 0.3%, before growing by 1% next year. The reasons for this country-specific poor performance include its exposure to high gas prices, high interest rates and its relatively poor trade performance.  

 

Of course, this is only a forecast, but watch for the response to this: no doubt the government will suggest that the IMF has been notoriously inaccurate in the past. 

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UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says

UK faces worst downturn of any advanced economy, OECD says | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The OECD says the UK will contract more next year than any other of the world's wealthiest nations.
Graham Watson's insight:

Watch Conservative politicians banging the "They've always been wrong before..." drum in the media over the next 24 hours. I'm amazed that those people likely to say that ever look in mirrors; lacking a soul they're unlikely to see a reflection.

 

However, welcome to the grim reality of the next couple of years - the biggest recession since records began. That said, the size of the difference in the OECD and OBR forecast is interesting and would make for a fascinating ToK session. 

frankline's curator insight, January 24, 2023 8:47 PM

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UK business investment lowest in G7 despite corporation tax cuts, says IPPR | Economics | The Guardian

UK business investment lowest in G7 despite corporation tax cuts, says IPPR | Economics | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
‘Race to the bottom’ on tax on company profits has failed to boost economic growth, says thinktank
Graham Watson's insight:

Aside from all the 'noise' about tax cuts the Institute for Public Policy Research has revealed that despite cuts to corporation tax, Britain's investment is now the lowest of all G7 member states. Despite a fall in corporation tax from 30% in 2007 to 19% in 2019, the UK's level of investment as a share of national income is lower than any other G7 nation.

 

And there's the rub...this supply-side issue, a long-term, structural factor is probably more responsible for sluggish growth than any of the other factors currently being singled out. 

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Why does the UK have the highest inflation in the G7? | Inflation | The Guardian

Why does the UK have the highest inflation in the G7? | Inflation | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Analysis: UK among hardest-hit countries thanks to perfect storm of war in Ukraine, Covid and Brexit
Graham Watson's insight:

A pithy look at why UK inflation is the highest of all G7 nations - highlighting energy prices - and the structure of the industry - the impact of Brexit on the value of the pound and worker shortages. 

 

All of the above are causes of cost-push inflation. Are there any demand-pull factors that you can think of?

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UK economy expanded 7.5% last year

UK economy expanded 7.5% last year | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Growth was ahead of forecasts despite a setback in December due to Omicron restrictions.
Graham Watson's insight:

Growth rebounded in 2021, reaching 7.5% for the year and, no doubt, we'll here much about being the fastest growing G7 economy. However, as the article is quick to point out, this is taken out of context, if you consider that in 2020, we were saw the biggest decline in growth of G7 economies, 9.4%, such that the UK economy is slightly smaller than it was at the end of December 2019. 

 

Factor in the shrink in the economy reported in December 2021, as a result of the Omicron variant, and it's hardly a resounding success.  

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Can mining save Cornwall's economy?

Can mining save Cornwall's economy? | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

As world leaders gather there for the G7 meeting, one of the UK's poorest regions is at a crossroads.

Graham Watson's insight:

The G7 meeting in Cornwall has given Simon Jack chance to reflect on the Cornish economy, one of the UK's poorest regions. 

 

He wonders the extent to which lithium mining is going to provide a boost to the economy. It's a chance to reflect upon all sorts of things, not least investment and the possibility of a regional multiplier effect. 

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Fifteen years after the G8 summit, it's the UK that's in dire need of aid | Economics | The Guardian

Fifteen years after the G8 summit, it's the UK that's in dire need of aid | Economics | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Fifteen years after the G8 summit, it's the UK that's in dire need of aid | Economics | The Guardian
Graham Watson's insight:

Larry Elliott notes that 15 years after the G8 summit at Gleneagles, it's going to be the UK that's in need of assistance and not Heavily-Indebted Poor Countries. 

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