Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics

Costs of Brexit. You could almost weep at the grim inevitability of it.

The second phase of UK-EU customs checks is here; what a boon it is for the UK, with the opportunity cost of the checks increasing the price of goods entering the UK and thus increasing inflation, whilst simultaneously reducing consumer choice. 

I'll just leave this here - scandalous, isn't it? And all so predictable. 

Brexit is, and was always going to be a farce. And here's more proof. 

More costs of Brexit, less choice, and fewer small businesses. It's what we voted for apparently. 

Here we go! Customs checks as part of the post-Brexit era, increasing the cost of imports. Think of how you might show this on an AD-AS diagram and its implications for the major macroeconomic objectives. 

One for the costs of Brexit file - with the introduction of new border controls next week, and the prospect of more red tape, longer customs delays and higher prices. What's not to like? 

Well, well. Here we go again, with another delay on post-Brexit checks on imports of fresh food from the EU, with the government delaying the imposition of these controls until 2024. 

The argument publicly offered is that it's too allow businesses more time to prepare, but the fact that food entering the country will be subject to checks costing somewhere between £20 and £43 might also have a role to play as the government looks to limit the impact of rising food prices on inflation. 

And more about food prices - Brexit is imposing extra costs on food imports - and the Fresh Produce Consortium argues that it's unreasonable to expect traders to absorb these costs single-handedly.

Who could have predicted that? 

A simple tale for you: why Brexit is a nonsense. Read this BBC clip and tell me why the fact that lorries are back up outside Dover is an utter nonsense. And then ask yourself why isn't this being more widely reported?

Who is gaining from the inability to freely import from/export to the EU? And who is losing out? Almost all of us. 

This is the truth of Brexit: as some have called it the longest economic suicide note in history. Just look at the costs that it is imposing and to what purpose?

A series of vox pops with exporters, highlighting the impact of Brexit on their ability to export. In short, it's not a pretty picture: everyone comments on delays and increased costs.

Oh dear! Predictable fare? Will it get any better in the months ahead? We shall have to see. 

Who would have thought it: Britain's Brexit-related infrastructure isn't ready. Facilities at major ports, including Portsmouth and Dover, aren't ready and we are unlikely to be in a position to oversee customs checks by the July deadline. 

This is a sorry tale, the pandemic notwithstanding. Consider the opportunity cost of all this spending on utterly unnecessary infrastructure, and all the people required to staff it. It is a farce. 

Here we go: there are already delays in getting goods through Britain's ports - and that's before we've left the EU. The volume of goods passing through Felixstowe is 30% higher than usual, and getting materials such a timber into the country is proving harder than normal.

The shape of things to come?

I have to say, it's difficult to disagree with Simon Jenkins - although I would on one point - I don't think that either Boris Johnson or Michael Gove are ideologues, more unprincipled chancers.

However, he is right to highlight the massive cost of Brexit - not just in terms of the opportunity cost of border infrastructure, but in tems of the absence of frictionless trade. You heard it here first - history will not judge the architects of Brexit kindly. Not that either of these two will care...

To quote the great economist, Phil Tufnell: "What a time to be alive!".

New post-Brexit customs checks have come into force, and represent yet another cost of Brexit. Higher prices and less consumer choice, exactly what Leave voters chose. Proof that turkeys sometimes vote for Christmas.

As the article notes, a the co-owner of a flower company expects the border checks "to cost his business between £200,000 and £225,000 per year."

This Observer piece nails its colours to the mast: the introduction of customs checks three plus years after Brexit is going to be associated with a number of costs, increasing prices and inflation.

And, I would note, that this isn't yet full border checks - it's "inspections of some goods". So, for all the Leavers out there: where are the corresponding benefits? 

Who would have thought it? Can we have some Brexiteers onto the Today programme, Newsnight and other current affairs programmes to defend this?

Yet another delay to erecting trade barriers: we're not ready, they risk serious disruption and so on. And if they cause disruption in the short-run, what are the compensating benefits in the long-run? 

Another one for the costs of Brexit file. 

Another effect of new Brexit food checks: reduced consumer choice, and with it reduced dynamic efficiency. Costs up, choice down. One for the costs of Brexit file, methinks. 

Tomorrow sees the introduction of Brexit food checks, effectively meaning that all the food imported from the EU requires checks and will need an extra day to get onto British supermarket shelves. If you voted to Leave, did you consider the self-evident fact that this is likely to increase food prices and mean that the produce you buy isn't as fresh as previously.

Of course you did, because the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg told you that Brexit was going to lower food prices, and bring forth a veritable cornucopia of fresh produce from elsewhere. I for one, can scarcely leave the house before being assailed by sellers of rambutan, lychees and durrian these days. 

If you believe that actions speak louder than words, which as an economist, you should, the answer to this question is likely to be no. 

Far from frictionless trade, pre-Brexit, the introduction of any such checks is, as the article rightly states, effectively a food import tax. Given the current level of inflation and the prospect of a General Election, I can easily see it being overlooked. 

I will also wager that if Labour try to negotiate some sort of veterinary deal they'll be denounced as "undemocratically" trying to roll back Brexit. 

Here we go again - the proposed post-Brexit import checks have been delayed again. After serial delays, the proposed introduction date of October 2023 has been pushed back again until January 2024. It's almost as if those who conceptualised of Brexit had no idea what they were doing, or what Brexit implies. 

And, equally, you'd never think that these checks are going to increase the price of imported goods would you? 

So much for coherent policymaking, as the Brexit Opportunities minister, Jacob Rees-Mogg, has announced that Britain has no immediate plans to introduce Brexit import checks. Ports that have already implemented plans and built infrastructure must be delighted. 

In short, my cynical take is that EU importers will find it easier to export to the UK, whereas UK exporters will still face checks on exports to the EU. As the article notes "some UK food exporters face the triple whammy of marathon length haulage queues in Kent, dozens of pages of red tape for sales in Europe, and no equivalent restrictions on competition from abroad for the UK market." They must be delighted. 

The minister must, however, surely want to explain why we're delighted that Brexit has offered us the opportunity to revert to the pre-Brexit state of affairs.  

Well, I never. Proposed check on goods imported from the EU are being delayed again. It's almost like we never left. 

So much for an oven ready deal. It's not even slow cooker ready. 

Good news! Britain is delaying customs checks on EU goods entering the UK because the facilities aren't ready. Who would have thought that? Instead of telling businesses to 'get ready' it seems that the government would have been better off getting its own house in order.

And as for those people who called for a delay after the outbreak of coronavirus, it seems that they're point has subsequently been proved. That is has, indicates the extent to which 'the idea' has trumped practicality, and you have to wonder whether, on that basis, it also trumps economic sense too.

Who would have thought it? Brexit has increased delays at ports and adversely affected Britain's food security. Remarakble. 

Even more remarkable, the government have already started to lie about it.

Here we go - let the games commence! 

It seems that there are already delays at Britain's ports, and I can't see them getting better in the next few weeks, can you?