February's drop to 3.4% means the cost of living is now rising at its slowest pace since September 2021.
Graham Watson's insight:
Inflation has fallen to its lowest level since September 2021, falling to 3.4% in February, largely as a result of falling food prices and falls in the cost of eating out.
Whilst I doubt whether this will have any effect on this week's interest rate decision, it is also nice to see Jeremy Hunt's take on the possibility of future tax cuts invoking the Zhou En-Lai take on the French Revolution.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak rejected fears job retention bonus and meal discount are not value for taxpayers.
Graham Watson's insight:
Yesterday it emerged that the chief civil servant at HMRC wrote to the Chancellor, concerned about two aspects of his Summer Statement. In both cases, he wonders whether the Job Retention Bonus and the scheme promoting discounted restaurant meals represented value for money. Expect the National Audit Office to weigh in at some point.
And I can see his point: in the former case, lots of firms, with no threat of bankruptcy, are simply going to re-employ furloughed staff and get ex gratia payments of £1,000, whereas other firms are not going to receive equivalent help, and the sum involved is too small to help those genuinely at risk of going under.
In the second case, I have to say that I feel uneasy about subsidising eating out when there are a growing number of people unable to afford to 'eat in'. Surely, it would be more worthwhile spending the proposed £0.5bn on feeding them, than subsidising middle-class dining?
Sales at food stores fell last month as more people spent their money in restaurants and bars.
Graham Watson's insight:
The coronavirus recovery is patchy - with retail sales down but a shift back towards eating out as people return to restaurants.
However, perhaps the most interesting data relates to the shift to online retail with "the share of online sales increased to 27.7% in August...substantially higher than the 19.7% share seen in February 2020 before the pandemic." Equally, there's a nod to current supply chain difficulties, with "6.5% of all retail businesses said they were not able to get the materials, goods or services needed from within the UK in the last two weeks" and department stores are the most heavily affected.
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Chancellor Rishi Sunak has unveiled an "eat out to help out" discount as part of wider measures.
Graham Watson's insight:
One of the more interesting aspects of the Summer Statement is the Chancellor's 50% discount on eating out - but only Monday to Wednesday. It's caused disagreement: the hospitality sector are pleased, but others are angry that money is being offered to encourage to people to eat out when others are unable to eat enough, or sufficiently healthily.
From a microeconomic point of view, this looks like a subsidy - albeit a limited one, in that it will only be offered for 13 days during August. From a macroeconomic view, it's helping an under pressure sector, but it does seem to have adverse distributional consequences.
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