Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics

Today's Guardian editorial argues that the end of the furlough scheme is dreadfully timed with the country seemingly on the verge of a second lockdown. 

It argues that the Job Support Scheme is going to prove as good at protecting jobs, or supporting the most vulnerable, and the stimulus effects of the package are likely to be lower, at a time when it seems that ever more stimulus is needed.

The furlough scheme comes in for a hammering in this Larry Elliott article that decries it as simply temporary - arguing that it's neither targeted nor timely, and highlighting that fact that nearly 1 million workers in manufacturing, professional services and construction are still on the scheme despite the end of socially distancing in these sectors. 

So, how is all this going to pan out? Your guess is as good as mine.

The only lacuna in the Chancellor's fresh round of job protection seems to be for the self-employed - with the Labour Party attacking him for failing to provide them with ample protection under the new iteration of the furlough scheme.

More on the prospect of more support, especially for workers in the hospitality sector in any new support package.

The Head of the British Chamber of Commerce has written to the Prime Minister asking for more support for businesses in the wake of the new coronavirus rules. 

It seems that we are potentially on the cusp of another period of lockdown, and businesses feel that they are going to bear the brunt. And if they do, then redundancies will follow.

Here come the job losses - the Guardian says that despite some summer spending - the winter is going to bring a round of redundancies, as the economy struggles to recover from the coronavirus. 

More on the state of the UK labour market. Watch this space...

The Labour Party has gone on the offensive arguing that the emergency jobs scheme is little more than a sticking plaster that will ensure that another 1m people will be made unemployed over the winter. 

They argue that businesses reliant on mass gatherings have been thrown to the wolves, and will have to shut down. However, it's also clear that as the Chancellor has always stated, it's impossible to protect every job, so I'd like to see what any Labour alternative policy would both look like, and cost.

The Guardian reckon there are gaps in the Chancellor's emergency jobs scheme. They detail where in this article, noting that a number of groups have been excluded.

The masterstroke of the head of the CBI and the head of the TUC being photographed on the steps of 11 Downing Street aside, this Newsnight clip looks at the mechanics of the emergency jobs scheme. 

But will it staunch the likely rise in unemployment?

The BBC works through the implications of the new emergency jobs scheme and wonders how it is going to play out.

From what I've seen so far, the Chancellor has managed to balance hope and expectation: he clearly can't protect ever single job in the UK.

The major part of the Chancellor's speech focused on creating an emergency jobs scheme, helping to cover workers' wages for the next six months.

If workers face  reduction in their hours, then any shortfall in pay will be covered by both their employers and the government, with the contribution of the latter capped at around £700 per month.

No doubt, as ever, the devil is in the detail but it seems to be an attempt to stave off a wave of unemployment this winter.

Crikey! Just days before the furlough scheme ends, the latest ONS data suggests that 2m people are still on it. 

Their pay is going to take a hit in November, and some of their jobs are also going to go.

Another call for greater employment protection for the months ahead, with Carsten Jung of the Institute for Public Policy Research suggesting that it's merely a sticking plaster until things get worse - most probably in the New Year, and that it will, undoubtedly, be altered at that point.  

I'm sure that he has a point but policymaking is more nuanced that  and I'm not convinced that planning for a worse-case scenario is necessarily the way forward - or good economics.

The latest iteration of the furlough scheme looks to reduce the amount employers pay, increase the amount the government pays and provide increased support to workers. In theory, it should be encouraging.

In practice, I worry about what it says about the immediate prospects for the economy.

The Chancellor is going to unveil a new series of support measures, his fourth, for ailing firms after critics have pointed out that while there are three tiers of Covid-alert, there are only two tiers of worker support and that this seems to discriminate against those workers in Tier 2 areas. 

Either way, it seems likely that the Emergency Job Support scheme is likely to be extended, adding to the pressures on the public purse. 

The furlough scheme: the sequel.

It seems that the Chancellor has had to reintroduce a furlough scheme for those employees who are told they cannot work because their firms are obliged to close.

It comes less than a fortnight after the Emergency Jobs Scheme was announced as part of the so-called Winter Plan.

A critical view of the so-called Winter Plan. Carry on Unemployment, might be the subtitle of the article, arguing, as it does, that any comparison between the UK's emergency jobs scheme and German wage subsidies is wholly inappropriate.

To the tune of London Bridge:

Furlough scheme is winding down,

Winding down, winding down

Furlough scheme is winding down,

Un-employment

At least that's what the hospitality sector is predicting - with potentially hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk.

The Observer, and the Labour Party's Shadow Chancellor, pull no punches in assessing the emergency jobs scheme, suggesting that it smacks of the 'worst of Thatcher' in failing to protect low-paid workers in Britain's former industrial heartlands. 

The paragraph that strikes me is the assertion that it will now cost firms more to keep one person on part-time, that it would keeping two people on working half their hours. That speaks of incentives, and if they are incorrectly aligned, we all know what happens.

But the hospitality sector aren't convinced...

And a bleaker view of the emergency jobs scheme, with many worried that it doesn't go far enough in protecting some of the most vulnerable workers, particularly in hospitality. 

Night clubs, in particularly appear to be bearing the brunt...

The Chancellor's rescue plan in his own words...