Small and medium-sized firms badly hit as huge drop in apparel sales helps fuel 18% slide in all-non food exports
Graham Watson's insight:
Just the grim inevitability of another obvious cost of Brexit with UK clothing sales to the EU falling from £7.4bn in 2019 to £2.7bn in 2023 as a result of red tape., part of an overall 18% slump in the sales of non-food goods.
The sad thing is that many of the firms are still manufacturing clothing; it's just that they've relocated their production facilities to the Continent.
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Head of SMMT raises concerns over tightening of trade rules from January on vehicles exported from UK to EU
Graham Watson's insight:
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders has continued to alert us to the dangers facing UK-based electric car manufacturers from January 2024. At that point, tighter rule of origin laws, particularly in relation to car batteries, are due to kick and and their will be a 10% tariff on any cars that are exported from the UK and fail to comply with EU legislation.
UN figures show value of British goods and services exports rose by 6% between 2012 and 2021, compared with 29.1% for EU
Graham Watson's insight:
And so the slow decline is well under way, with UN data suggesting that the value of UK exports rose by 6% between 2012 and 2021, compared with nearly 30% for the EU.
Make of this what you will, and no doubt there are some adjustments, and costs, that have come about because of Brexit, but I, for one, am putting this in the costs of Brexit file.
Exclusive: Forecasts predict exports will fall to £707bn next year and target will not be reached until 2035
Graham Watson's insight:
Costs of Brexit? Read it and weep.
Britain's forecast growth in exports is currently lagging well behind forecasts that suggested that they would soon reach £1 trillion. Indeed on current data, this target is only likely to be reached by 2035.
But, of course, Brexiteers will be quick to play down the role that Brexit has played in this.
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Two years after post-Brexit trading began with the EU, UK businesses feel frustrated, says BCC.
Graham Watson's insight:
No surprise here, with the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) reporting that its survey data reveals that the vast majority of those contacted felt that Brexit has had a significantly adverse effect upon UK-EU trade.
This is backed up by a Centre for European Reform report which "suggests Brexit may have reduced UK trade by around 7%" ,higher than the OBR forecast, but the OBR forecast did forecast that "imports and exports would be 15% lower in the long run, and that new trade deals with the rest of the world would not make much difference to trade volumes".
The longest economic suicide note in history they said.
Research also reveals EU remains ‘overwhelmingly dominant’ destination for UK manufacturing exports
Graham Watson's insight:
An article that proves that on one well-known occasion, turkeys do vote for Christmas. It seems that the most pro-Brexit regions are most heavily dependent upon the EU as a market for their exports, and that the EU is still the dominant destination of UK manufacturing exports.
Exporters fear Northern Ireland protocol row will spur trade war with Brussels, making an already difficult job even harder
Graham Watson's insight:
A snapshot of post-Brexit trade, with British exporters struggling to cope, and the prospect of the row over the Northern Ireland protocol implies that there could be even more restrictions to follow.
Exports are down across the board, most significantly with the EU, and the opportunity cost of dealing with existing regulations seems unlikely to go away.
Figures show Brexit compounding Covid disruption, with clothing exports plunging 60%, vegetables down 40% and cars 25%
Graham Watson's insight:
I don't know where to start with this - UK exports to the EU down by £20bn last year - and factor in the multiplied effect of that. Minus, of course, exports to the Faroes which were probably up.
But look at how almost every sector of industry has been affected relative to 2018. Whilst the EU remains our largest trading partner, we now import more from the rest of the world than we do from the EU. It's just heartbreaking. What possessed people to vote for something like the - an economic suicide note, as some have called it.
Analysis: UK trade has taken a double whammy and few believe new deals can make up the loss
Graham Watson's insight:
A look at the past year from a UK perspective: it's a look at the nature of the post-Brexit environment, the collapse in trade between Britain and the EU, and how new trade deals will do little to overcome this.
It's depressingly predictable - could have been forecast in 2016 - and yet, because of the lies and obfuscation, wasn't. Admittedly, coronavirus has also played a part, but as I said many moons ago - I was happy for Brexit to go ahead provided that those who voted in favour were prepared to compensate those who voted against. A kind of Hicks-Kaldor compensation, I guess.
Ministers say it will unlock £10.4bn of trade, but UK farmers have concerns about being undercut.
Graham Watson's insight:
Hurrah! The UK has signed a free trade deal with Australia, and it's new in the sense that it doesn't simply roll over the terms of trade agreed with the EU. Farmers are concerned, in that it gives Australian farmers access to our markets but there's a 15 year transition period. However, minister are pleased that it will unlock £10.4bn of trade.
Now, I hate to rain on anyone's parade. however, in 2019 Australia accounted for 1.2% of our exports and 1.6% of our imports. So I'd hate to see it being suggested that this really is a game changer. Unless Liz Truss does it. At that point it's likely to become low grade comedy.
The aim is to boost exports to £1 trillion a year by the end of the decade, says the government.
Graham Watson's insight:
Pathetic. Pathetic. Pathetic. The government has announced a plan to boost exports to £1 trillion by the end of the decade, but in reality it's a ruse to distract from the precipitous decline in exports to both EU and non-Eu destinations.
A number of questions to ask - had Britain not left the EU, what would projected exports have been by 2030? And what are the currently on track to be? What about imports? Another example of the fondness for the grand gesture rather than the substance of coherent policymaking.
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Irish government figures come days after M&S says it is scrapping 800 lines due to ‘excessive paperwork’
Graham Watson's insight:
More good trade news - the value of UK exports to Ireland has fallen, but Irish exports to the UK have increased largely as a result of the asymmetry in border checks.
UK exports to Eire currently get checked at the Irish border; Irish exports to the UK do not. You simply couldn't script this sort of thing.
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Customs rules take their toll as German companies swap UK suppliers for alternatives in the EU.
Graham Watson's insight:
More good trade news: we're about to drop out of the top ten trading partners of Europe's largest economy, Germany, something that hasn't happened since 1950.
It gets better: not only have exports to Germany declined by 11% but imports from Germany have risen by nearly 3% in the first six months of the year. Quite some Brexit dividenc.
Greater fall per head and latest trade data illustrate longer term decline of economy
Graham Watson's insight:
The Guardian take on today's news that we ended 2023 in recession: it's worse than you think. If you factor in a rising population, then GDP per capita has seen a more pronounced fall and trade has also fallen by more.
In short, there are few grounds for optimism, and short of a significant rise in productivity, the UK economy seems destined to struggle to generate growth for a few years yet.
More than $3bn in costs could be added to EU industry unless deal is tweaked, say representatives of sector
Graham Watson's insight:
Who would have thought it, but EU electric car exports to the UK are going to be adversely affected by Brexit trade barriers, with the introduction of tariffs on cars which don't contain 45% of the value of the car being made in the EU or the UK. Such a move would add $3bn in costs to the cars and reduce trade in the sector.
Marginal expansions and contractions in 2023 will do little to solve a lack of investment and export shortfall
Graham Watson's insight:
Phillip Inman assesses the current state of the UK economy and shares my view that the economy looks like it's going nowhere fast. Yes, we've avoided a recession - for now - but a lack of investment and an export shortfall - both injections, of course, mean that aggregate demand is going to remain moribund.
And that's before we start looking at the supply-side...
Boris Johnson said there would be ‘no non-tariff barriers’, but in the first of a four-part series we hear from firms who have lost valuable business
Graham Watson's insight:
The costs of Brexit laid bare in a four party series looking at how the increased bureaucracy has affected British firms across a range of sectors, and damaged trade with the EU.
And look at the government response: Europe's share of global GDP will fall from 19.9% to 14.1% by 2050! Remarkable! But Europe's GDP will still be far higher than it is now, and quite why exporting to the EU and elsewhere are mutually exclusive is something that escapes me.
First such accord after leaving EU was predicted to bring £15bn boost but UK now lags rivals
Graham Watson's insight:
A brilliant example of an obvious cost of Brexit: the much vaunted post-Brexit trade deal with Japan has actually reduced British exports to Japan. The deal signed in October 2020, was meant to boost the economy by $15bn.
However, the Department for International Trade's own figures reveal that "exports to Japan fell from £12.3bn to £11.9bn in the year to June 2022." Furthermore, "exports in goods fell 4.9% to £6.1bn and services fell 2% to £5.8bn."
A weak pound often appears as a harbinger of economic doom for the UK – now it looks poised to weaken further
Graham Watson's insight:
Barry Eichengreen highlights the damage that the weakening of the pound is likely to cause the UK economy. Superficially, you might think that more competitive exports is a good thing - but think about the flipside, more expensive imports and a loss of confidence in the UK economy.
Remember, empirically, the UK economy has always done better with a strong pound.
Upward revision in annual GDP growth, despite Omicron denting output over Christmas
Graham Watson's insight:
There's been an upwards revision of Q3 growth from 1% to 1.4%, meaning that the ONS is now of the view that the economy is within 0.1% of its pre-pandemic size. It's believed that the spending on the testing programme for the Omicron variant has played a significant role in this.
However, in the longer-term, the fact that trade has fallen so much and the level of output minus government spending is still 2.9% below the pre-pandemic level are still significant causes for concern.
Britain says a deal could be worth billions of pounds and almost double exports to India by 2035.
Graham Watson's insight:
So, trade negotiations with India have begun with the usual fanfare - billions of pounds: in 2019 total trade was worth £23bn but it has the capacity to increase trade by £28bn by 2035.
But look beyond the headlines - how much would the value of trade with India have grown had we stayed in the EU? And how much is it going to grow by irrespective of whether we sign a trade deal or not?
And then look at recent data: in 2019, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, India accounted for 1.54% of our exports and 1.41% of our imports.
So, all in all, yes, a welcome trade deal but earth shattering it isn't. But then again, as we were told in 2016, people are tired of experts, so this sort of realism won't be welcome in some quarters.
Figures reveal impact of Brexit and pandemic, with £2.7bn fall blamed largely on 24% drop in sales to bloc
Graham Watson's insight:
I'll leave this here - one for the costs of Brexit file, I feel.
However, food and drink exports have plummeted, by 16% overall, driven by a 24% decrease in sales to the EU - with a 50% decrease in exports to Spain.
The Food and Drink Federation are looking for improved relations between the UK and its largest trading partner in an attempt to help the sector recover.
Exporters move away from traditional Dublin to Britain routes to avoid Brexit red tape
Graham Watson's insight:
One for the costs of Brexit file - one wonders why Irish exporters have decided to move away from getting goods into the EU via Britain, with goods shipped from Eire to the EU up by 50% in 6 months.
This Brexit project, ill-conceived and wrong-headed at best, looks like it's going well, lads.
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The economy grew by 1.3% between July and September, with supply chain problems hitting businesses.
Graham Watson's insight:
Just a massive story, largely skated over by most of the papers yesterday, the disappointing performance of the economy has significant macroeconomic implications. Growth in the last quarter was 1.3%, meaning that the economy is still 2.1% smaller than it was pre-pandemic.
Of course, supply chain problems played a part, but this occurred at a time when almost all coronavirus restrictions had been lifted and disappointing levels of business investment don't bode well going forward.
Equally, as a footnote, our trade performance was also poor - with the trade deficit in goods growing by £9bn, driven by rising imports from both EU and non-EU countries and falling exports.
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