Opposition finds fallout of Liz Truss mini-budget has raised average mortgage interest payments by £150 a week in two years
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems that we're going to be feeling the effects of the Liz Truss mini-Budget for some time to come, with the Labour Party suggesting that it is costing the average household an extra £150 per week, as a result of the rise in interest rates since then.
That's quite a claim - how might you go about trying to test it?
Ministers remain unable to decide on ways to help as energy firm boss warns soon 40% could be in fuel poverty
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems that the government doesn't have much in its arsenal to tackle the cost of living crisis, other than suggesting that work is the solution. Ordinarily, that would seem to be a reasonable position, but with unemployment at 3.7% and the number of vacancies exceeding the registered unemployed, you'd have to argue that getting into work isn't a problem but for but remains an entrenched problem for others - on structural grounds - so exhorting people to work isn't that canny a solution.
Sales growth in March slowed due to people tightening their personal budgets, new figures show.
Graham Watson's insight:
The rate of retail sales growth has weakened, with March seeing 3.1% growth, compared to 6.7% in February, according to the British Retail Consortium. And prospects don't look great: uncertainty about household incomes and rising costs suggest that businesses are going to struggle in the months ahead.
The UK's independent forecaster warns household finances will not return to 2019 levels for two more years.
Graham Watson's insight:
The weakness of the post-pandemic recovery is illustrated by the fact the household incomes aren't going to reach 2019 levels until 2023 according to OBR committee member, Charlie Bean - and former Chief Economist of the Bank of England.
Of course, for some, they've already surpassed pre-pandemic incomes - especially if they were rewarded with PPE contracts.
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Consumers reduce spending as incomes are hit by Covid-related cuts
Graham Watson's insight:
Bad news for household finances, and by definition bad news for the prospect of growth as concerns about job security, and the end of the furlough scheme mean that consumer spending is weakening. And we all know what this means for growth.
Recession and unprecedented squeeze on incomes likely, says Bank of England policymaker
Graham Watson's insight:
Not good news for the UK economy, with the news that a leading Bank of England policymaker is forecasting "the biggest slump on record", and corresponding decline on incomes.
Resolution Foundation says UK only halfway through two-year cost of living crisis, with only very richest likely to see income rise in 2023-24
Graham Watson's insight:
The Resolution Foundation have forecast that there's going to be an extended cost of living crisis, and that average household incomes are going to fall by £2,000 per year by April 2024. Factor in rising mortgage repayments and energy bills, amongst other things and people are going to feel the pinch.
This have obvious implications for economic growth, and other macroeconomic objectives, as well as for standards of living.
The rising cost of energy, transport and childcare is forcing families to make tough choices.
Graham Watson's insight:
Research from Loughborough University has calculated the impact of the cost of living crisis on consumer spending, with two-child families now paying £400 per month more on basic goods and services than they were a year ago.
We’ve built an economy where life-or-death decisions on prices and wages are driven by shareholders’ interests, says writer Christine Berry
Graham Watson's insight:
Christine Berry writes in the Guardian about the distributional consequences of the cost of living crisis, arguing that once again the rich will get richer and the poor will be hit the hardest.
Household income will rise by just £220 in five years, thinktank says, as unions warn of harm to self-employed
Graham Watson's insight:
"If you don't want to know the score - look away now" they sometimes say on the news. In this case, it applies to the future prospects for the economy - with the Resolution Foundation suggesting that the next five years are going to see a period of exceptionally low growth in household incomes in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
In the immediate aftermath of the pandemic it's likely that unemployment is going to rise to over 2.5 million, but the recovery after that is going to be weak, and we are likely to be dealing with the fallout for most of the decade.
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It seems that we're going to be feeling the effects of the Liz Truss mini-Budget for some time to come, with the Labour Party suggesting that it is costing the average household an extra £150 per week, as a result of the rise in interest rates since then.
That's quite a claim - how might you go about trying to test it?