Since 1950, global fertility rates have decreased steadily. Now. the average woman has less than 3 children on average.
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2022 Title 5: Fertility rates, life expectancies & the implications of women's empowerment: measuring the correlations between access to education & falling birth rates..
There's no one agreed version of history. So how can we trust any of it?
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Titles 5 & 6: Old & new historical facts, consensus & joint narratives: How do experts maximise confidence in what they can know about the past and be certain enough?
President Joe Biden on Tuesday used stark language as he mourned one of the worst acts of racial violence in US history, marking the 100th anniversary of the Tulsa Race Massacre.
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021: The Tulsa Race Massacre, history & erasing collecting memories: we can only have confidence in our historical knowledge claims if we actively choose to know 'the good, the bad, the everything.'...
The long read: Statues of historical figures are lazy, ugly and distort history. From Cecil Rhodes to Rosa Parks, let’s get rid of them all
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Title 5: Faulty memories, 'statue obsessions' & the petrification of history: even though history is a 'living discipline, subject to excavation, evolution and maturation', this doesn't hinder our confidence in what we claim to know about the past...
The five stages of grief are a overly simplistic representation of the grieving process, and one that was never intended by their creator
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2012 Title 5: Covid & coping with loss : How the H Sciences give temporary confidence in what we claim to know about grief as more refined models explain grief with better accuracy.
In science it is not only OK to be wrong, it is an unavoidable and perpetual state - depending, of course, on how you define "wrong". We lack a complete understanding of the universe, and al
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Titles 5 & 6: Certainty, confidence & category mistakes: in practical terms, science is about balancing 'risk vs benefit of all available courses of action given the best knowledge we have at the time'...
So how do we untangle this potential problematic knot in our concepts? The idea is that knowledge has both a subjective and objective element to it. That is, knowledge exists on a ‘spectrum’ – a sliding scale, if you like – of objective reason and subjective emotion; of certainty and confidence which do not always go in the same direction.
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Titles 5 & 6: Flat earth theory, scientific methodology & a certainty-confidence spectrum: looking at the nature of knowledge within a scientific context...
Physicists may have just made a major breakthrough in our understanding of the Universe.
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Title 5: Muons, the Standard Model & the building blocks of the Universe: TWE does a 4.1 sigma statistical level of confidence justify what experts claim to know about the existence of a 'fifth force' of nature?
Are spiritual beliefs an inevitable consequence of human evolution?
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Title 5: Exploring the development of religious knowledge systems from hunter gatherer groups to the Axial Age & beyond: 'we can be sure that our religious way of being has deep historical roots in our evolutionary lineage'...
TED Talk Subtitles and Transcript: What drives society's understanding of right and wrong? In this thought-provoking talk, futurist Juan Enriquez offers a historical outlook on what humanity once deemed acceptable -- from human sacrifice and public executions to slavery and eating meat -- and makes a surprising case that exponential advances in technology leads to more ethical behavior.
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Title 5: Guns, gay marriage & genetically modified meat: if ethical knowledge is always changing then what do we need to retain confidence in our sense of right and wring? Forgiveness & humility...
The Indian Ocean provides a new way of looking at world history that has been dominated by European accounts.
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Title 5: Indian Ocean studies, cosmopolitanism & Afrofuturist science fiction: we take confidence in our knowledge of global history by engaging new perspectives...
Mathematics is our most rigorous tool for predicting the future. In some situations, mathematics really can say what will happen next.
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Title 5: Chaos Theory, math prediction & simple systems: even the most rigorous math tools cannot guarantee our having full confidence in what we claim to know about our random universe.
Whether to kill baby Hitler might be a political firecracker, but can counterfactuals say anything deeper about the past?
ToKTutor's insight:
May2022 Title 4: 'What if...?' narratives, counterfactual discourse & hypothetical histories: the debate regarding how historians give meaning to knowledge of the past through speculative storytelling...
By not making more of an effort to incorporate spirituality in treatment, we are doing a disservice to patients
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Title 4: Faith, science & spiritual psychiatry: The production of mental health knowledge can be hampered when experts 'disconnect common spiritual behaviors and experiences from science and clinical practice'.
There is a branch of knowledge, akin to pseudo-scientific knowledge like ‘flat Earth theory’, in which one can seem to have absolute certainty and full confidence, because the truth of that knowledge is somehow ‘guaranteed’ or ‘underwritten’ by a higher power. Faith-based knowledge.
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Titles 5 & 6: Sacred scriptures, Lazurus rising & 'blind faith': towards 'complete certainty' & full 'confidence' in what we claim to know...
Since the research is really about the pipeline, the xenobots are primarily intended as a demonstration of the system's potential. If you're wondering why we might want living robots, you're not alone. According to senior researcher roboticist Joshua Bongard, "It's impossible to know what th
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Title 5: From frogs to Xenobots via AI: when scientific knowledge changes at such a pace, we can't always be confident about knowing the ethical implications of new tech...
Peterson’s claim that “medicine kills more people than it helps” is the latest in a long line of demonstrably false claims – yet his fans continue to hang off his every word
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Titles 5 & 6: Medical error, authoritative claims & skepticism: how claiming to know with confidence and speaking with certitude can create the 'illusion of insight'.
Now, consider a clichéd example when we seem to have the utmost certainty and confidence in knowledge and they both seem to be moving in the same direction: 2 + 2 = 4. On the one hand, this is something you cannot doubt, isn’t it? You know this with 100% certainty.. You might actually be very confident about you
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Titles 5 & 6: Pythagoras, Euclid & beyond: TWE can we be both certain & confident in the truths of Maths?
As you dig into the definitions of these two key terms in these prompts – ‘confidence’ and ‘certainty’ – you’ll start to see that they appear to overlap in meaning. At times, you might even think they’re synonymous and can be used interchangeably. But take a step back. There is a relationship between the concepts but they are not the same.
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021: Confidence, certainty & the nature of knowledge: Exploring the similarities and differences of two key concepts...
Despite cosmology’s enormous progress in the last 50 years, we still know very little about our universe. General relativity, the theory which allowed modern cosmology to start in firs
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Title 5: Dark matter, dark energy & modified gravity: even if we still know very little about the universe, scientists always remain confident that new models may provide new solutions to old problems...
When Charles Darwin published "Descent of Man" 150 years ago, he launched scientific investigations on human origins and evolution. This week, three leading scientists in different, but related disciplines published "Modern theories of human evolution foreshadowed by Darwin's 'Descent of Man'," in Science, in which they identify three insights from Darwin's opus on human evolution that modern science has reinforced.
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Title 5: From Darwin's Evolution Theory to modern speciation theory: how collaborative efforts ensure we can have confidence in what we claim to know about the origins of humans.
From Stalinist Russia to the Spanish Civil War, the 20th century offered George Orwell a huge array of material for his dystopian novel Nineteen Eighty-Four. Dorian Lynskey charts the events that inspired a masterpiece
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Title 5: 'The Hotel Bristol error' & the inspiration of '1984': when history is re-written in line with ideological motives, we can't be confident in what we claim to know about the past...
When their predictions don't come true, cults are faced with a choice: accept reality, or rationalise the failure. Which road will Qanon take?
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 Title 5: QAnon, UFOs & cult beliefs: cognitive dissonance theory explains how we can still be confident in what we claim to know, in spite of changes in the context of our knowledge...
This title is a potential minefield of ambiguity, not least because it overlaps with Title 6 about the nature of uncertainty...
ToKTutor's insight:
Nov2021 TItle 5: The rapidly changing world of climate science: how the scientific community measures levels of confidence and certainty and why it's important...
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