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One morning during the next five years, you’ll wake up to news that HBO has seen the light. The cable network will announce that it has decided to take your money — maybe $12, $15, or $20 a month — and from that moment on, you’ll be able to watch its shows without a cable subscription.
Execs at the network and the rest of the TV industry will hail the news as momentous. But don’t be surprised by it. I’m not going out on a limb in making this prediction, because what happens from here is slam-dunk obvious: HBO’s current business is doomed. Yes, the network is riding high now. But there are simply too many growing forces arrayed against its cable-dependent model for the business to continue as it is — too many high-quality shows from competing, non-premium cable channels, too many new technologies for watching TV, too many startups gunning for HBO’s customers. At some point, too, there will simply be too much money in the streaming business for HBO to ignore.
The only question now is, When?
