The scientist who helped successfully combat the HIV/AIDS epidemic explains the science behind the novel coronavirus and looks toward the future of the world affected by COVID-19. As of March 20, more than 8,700 people worldwide had died of COVID-19, the disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Caltech trustee David Ho (BS '74) of the Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center, Columbia University, says that this is just the tip of the iceberg. Ho, an expert on viral epidemics, has spent decades researching HIV/AIDS, having begun his career in Los Angeles, "ground zero" of the first outbreak, in the early 1980s. On March 18, Ho sat down with members of the Caltech community to discuss the novel coronavirus and the future of our society in the light of this global pandemic.
Walk us through the spread of the virus in the United States. What does the country look like right now?
Let me just give you a picture of what I see here in New York. About two weeks ago, we had our initial case, and now in New York City newly diagnosed confirmed cases are tripling every two days. In our New York Presbyterian Hospital, approximately 25 percent of the swab samples that are submitted for testing are positive. In the suburban communities outside of New York, approximately 10 percent of the swabs submitted are positive. So, the virus is everywhere. And in New York, we know that we are in the exponential growth phase of the epidemic.
Looking back at what has transpired throughout the world, we saw the first wave hit China; the second wave hit South Korea, Italy, and Iran; and then, trailed by only about a week or so, France, Germany, Spain, and the U.S. We all know that China went through a period of great devastation. It has over 80,000 cases. Italy is rapidly catching up, with over 31,000 cases. We suspect that in the U.S. this will rapidly sweep from the coastal regions and it will hit middle America. It is already there, but we will see exponential growth very, very soon. Then of course we are all worried about what would happen when this epidemic strikes places like Africa and India where the health care system is less developed.....