Virus World

JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) — Indonesia surpassed 100,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths on Wednesday, a grim milestone in a country struggling with its worst pandemic wave fueled by the delta variant, amid concerns the actual figure could be much higher.  It took 14 months for Indonesia to exceed the 50,000 death mark at the end of May, and just over nine weeks to double it. The Health Ministry recorded 1,747 new deaths of COVID-19 in the last 24 hours, bringing the total to 100,636. Those figures are believed to be an undercount. Since the beginning of June, more than 2,800 people have died during self-isolation at home, according to LaporCOVID-19, an independent virus data group that keeps track of deaths at home. Some of those deaths are reflected in official figures but others are not, he said. “They were rejected by the hospitals, so they went back home and did the self-isolation at home with limited access to medicine, no oxygen and no monitoring from doctors until they died,” said Ahmad Arif, one of the LaporCOVID-19 founders. WHO says hospitals are in need of isolation rooms, oxygen supplies, medical and personal protective equipment, as well as mobile field hospitals and body bags. Lia Partakusuma, secretary general of the Indonesia Hospital Association, said intensive care beds continue to be in very short supply, especially outside of Java, where she said her association has received many reports of people dying at home.

“It is very rare that patients come and get into the ICU directly,” she said. “Many of them refuse to wait in the emergency unit, maybe they feel uncomfortable, so they decide to go back home.” In Bogor, south of Jakarta, Pramirtha Sudirman’s infected brother and parents decided to isolate at home because local hospitals were too crowded in early July. They consulted with a doctor ahead of time and had a plan to rush to the hospital if the symptoms got worse, the 32-year-old said. “We knew the risk of doing self isolation,” she said. After seeming to be on the road to recovery, her father suddenly took a turn for the worse and died at home before they could get him to the emergency room. Her mother and brother have since recovered. “We tried our best. We do not have any regret as we also know that the hospital was full too,” she said. Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous country, has recorded more than 3.5 million COVID-19 cases since March 2020. July was its deadliest month since the pandemic began, with more than 30,100 deaths — more than triple the 7,914 reported in June. Its current per capita death rate is one of the worst in the region, second only to Myanmar. In response, the government has stepped up its vaccination campaign, diverted most of the country’s industrial oxygen production for medical use, built more isolation centers and field hospitals, and has increased supplies of medicine to hospitals. The situation has eased somewhat in Jakarta, where patients were not being turned away like in the past, said Mahesa Paranadipa, the co-leader of the Risk Mitigation Team of the Indonesian Medical Association.

July 23 (Reuters) - Indonesia is suffering a devastating wave of coronavirus infections, driven by the Delta variant, but the government is already talking about relaxing social curbs enacted earlier this month - a move analysts say is largely led by economic considerations. The impact of the outbreak has been brutal in Indonesia, with stories of people desperately trying to find hospital beds, oxygen and medicine for loved ones. The country's COVID-19 death toll has broken records four times this week, the latest on Friday with 1,566 deaths. Nonetheless, and just over a week after Indonesia recorded its highest number of daily infections, President Joko Widodo flagged that current restrictions could be eased from as early as next week if cases start to drop.  Easing of restrictions is likely premature and potentially dangerous, say some public health experts. While cases have dipped – from more than 56,000 in mid-July to 49,000 on July 23 – epidemiologists say testing rates also dropped in the same period, making it difficult to determine whether there has been a true decline. Even if cases are flattening, relaxing curbs is inadvisable given hospital occupancy and death rates remain high, they say. Indonesia’s death rate is currently three times higher than the global average, according to Our World in Data, while nearly 2,500 people have died in isolation or outside hospitals since June, said independent data initiative, Lapor COVID-19.

Social restrictions in place since July 3 such as working from home and closed shopping malls are currently limited to the islands of Java and Bali and other designated 'red zones' across the country. Senior Minister Luhut Pandjaitan has said these could be eased as early as Monday if cases continue to fall and other indicators improve. He also said the "sociological condition of the people" would be factored into the decision. Concern about the livelihoods of the poor, and a series of small protests in the past week, have raised fears about the risk of social unrest, analysts and government sources say. With 60% of the workforce in the informal sector, experts say protests are a manifestation of frustration, not necessarily against restrictions but over how hard it has become to survive. 

WILL VACCINATIONS PROVIDE A PATH OUT OF THE CRISIS?

The government is counting on vaccinations, largely provided by China's Sinovac, to help reduce the impact of the pandemic. While Indonesia worked hard to kick off an early vaccination programme, logistical hurdles, limited supplies and vaccine hesitancy have held back targets – so far only 6% of the population is fully vaccinated. Pledges to reach 400,000 tests per day and boost contact tracing have also fallen short, while the positivity rate averaged 28.7% in the past week.

WHAT ARE THE POTENTIAL RISKS IF INDONESIA RELAXES CURBS?

The government faces a tricky balancing act in making policy to protect both the economy and the health of 270 million people in the sprawling, developing nation. But as cases have surged and graveyards have filled, the government has faced growing criticism that it has prioritised the economy over people's health. Conversely, a failure to reopen also carries economic risks. Employer groups have warned of mass layoffs unless curbs are relaxed next week, while credit rating agencies say restrictions could challenge the government's goal to reduce a fiscal deficit and undermine ratings. The big question may come down to timing. Public health experts advise that dialling back restrictions too soon could mean that additional support recently provided to health facilities could quickly be undermined, while also allowing the Delta variant to spread to far-flung regions even more ill-equipped to handle a health crisis.