Virus World

Despite the major decline in COVID-19 vaccine sales since the 2022 peak, the infectious disease market is still expected to grow by 5.7% through 2029 with Pfizer, Gilead and GSK all set to be the dominant forces in this market. That’s according to a new report out by analysts at GlobalData, which found the infectious disease market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.7% between 2023 and 2029 to reach $150 billion in annual sales by the decade’s end. Three Big Pharmas will also emerge as the dominant players: Pfizer, Gilead and GSK, which will, according to GlobalData’s estimates, collectively generate 62% of total infectious disease drug sales in that six-year period. And that comes despite a 63.8% decline in forecast sales for COVID-19 vaccines this year alone, with that partly offset by an “increasing demand for HIV drugs and continued high sales of COVID-19 therapeutics,” the firm said.

Pfizer will be boosted by its COVID med Paxlovid as well as its Prevnar pneumococcal disease vaccine franchise. Meanwhile, Gilead will rely on its major HIV products, and GSK, known for its strong presence in infectious disease, boasts a blockbuster shingles vaccine along with recent developments such as a new respiratory syncytial virus vaccine and an HIV pill. “Pfizer annual sales are forecast to decline by 9.2% from 2023 to 2029 due to easing pandemic pressures and the relaxation of government COVID-19 vaccination programs,” explained Kevin Marcaida, pharma analyst at GlobalData, in a release. Nevertheless, Pfizer is anticipated to retain its leading stance in the infectious disease market, primarily due to the sustained robust performance of its COVID-19 product lineup, spearheaded by the sales of Comirnaty, its COVID vaccine, and Paxlovid, according to the report. “This is due to strategic price hikes in 2023 for the U.S. market and persisting COVID-19 incidences in emerging economies. As a result, Comirnaty and Paxlovid are projected to achieve an astounding $122 billion in sales between 2023 to 2029,” Marcaida added. 

Gilead, meanwhile, is set to experience “steady infectious disease sales growth” of 12.4% from 2023 to 2029, the report finds, with HIV drug Biktarvy at the core of that, with GlobalData forecasting $92 billion in sales between 2023 and 2029. GSK, meanwhile, will grow out two blockbuster drugs: shingles vaccine Shingrix and HIV drug Dovato. Total sales for Shingrix are set to hit $41 billion between 2023 to 2029 while Dovato will do around half that, $20 billion, over the same period. “Pfizer, Gilead Sciences, and GSK are the three major companies driving growth in the infectious disease market” added Marcaida. “With their innovative products, these three industry leaders are well-positioned to capitalize on the expanding opportunities in the infectious diseases market.”

With leading COVID-19 vaccines moving into late-stage testing and rollouts possible in late 2020 or early 2021, analysts are starting to make predictions about what the market will look like. In all, Bernstein analyst Ronny Gal predicts the market will be worth $20 billion next year. In all, Gal predicts the market will be worth $20 billion next year. After 2021, it’s “hard to model” because little is known yet about the vaccine candidates, he wrote in a note to clients.

The analyst predicts “six players” will compete in the field for years, with the market eventually dwindling down to down to $5 billion to $6 billion per year. So far, federal purchasing agreements “have largely covered the U.S.,” he wrote in a note to clients. The government has inked deals to buy enough doses to immunize three quarters of the country's population, even if some of the candidates don’t pan out.  If the FDA gives its first emergency use authorizations for all adults, vaccine supply will be limited during the first quarter of 2021, Gal wrote. But if the initial authorizations are more restrictive, and the agency requires six months of safety data, “then there will be effectively no supply bottleneck and the vaccination wave will peak mid-year, when ample supply is available,” the analyst wrote. Developed countries will be vaccinated “in parallel with the U.S. with similar pricing and availability trends," Gal wrote. As vaccination rates in developed countries near 50%, Gal predicts demand will slow and doses will shift to developing countries. If current capacity projections pan out, the analyst predicts enough supplies by the end of 2021 to “vaccinate everyone.” 

In a separate COVID-19 vaccine market analysis, Evercore ISI analyst Josh Schimmer recently predicted COVID-19 vaccine developers will split $100 billion in total revenues and $40 billion in total profits. His team sees Moderna supplying about 40% of the total market, followed by a 20% share for Novavax. Other companies will split the rest of the market, Schimmer wrote. But Moderna and Novavax are going up against the some of world's largest vaccine and biopharma companies with their programs. Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and AstraZeneca are all either in phase 3 testing or planning to run large studies soon.