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This study presents the first evidence that full vaccination against COVID-19 suppresses emergent mutations of SARS-CoV-2 delta variants. An evolution algorithm, Tajima’s D test with a threshold value as -2.50, can provide a promising tool to forecast new COVID-19 outbreaks.
Question It remains unclear how human interventions (vaccinations, lockdowns, etc.) affect viral mutation or generate selection pressure of SARS-CoV-2. It has also been obscure if there are differences in various geographic populations.
Findings The vaccination coverage rate is inversely correlated to the mutation frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variants in 16 countries of 20 countries studied. We also discovered delta variants evolved differently under the positive selection pressure in the United Kingdom and India.
Meaning Full vaccination against COVID-19 is critical to suppress emergent mutations. Tajima’s D test score, with a threshold value as -2.50, can provide a promising tool to forecast new COVID-19 outbreaks.
Available as preprint in medRxiv (August 10, 2021):
