While price growth has fallen sharply, with April’s 3.4% lower than March’s 3.5%, it is still higher than Fed’s medium-term goal of 2%
Graham Watson's insight:
Both the UK and the US are currently waiting for the next interest rate cut; however, it doesn't seem to be imminent in either economy because in both instances the respective central bank is nervous about the fact that inflation hasn't quite fallen far enough.
In the US inflation is currently 3.4%, but that's still 1.4% higher than the Federal Reserve's medium-term goal of 2%, and there's concern that inflationary pressure hasn't yet been driven out of either economy.
‘Cushion’ for car makers facing looming tariff under Brexit deal for vehicles traded between EU and UK from start of 2024
Graham Watson's insight:
Nice to see that the UK and the EU have resolved all Brexit-related trade issues a mere 7 years after the Brexit vote, but at least there's an attempt to agree some sort of compromise in the electric vehicle market might mean that the impact of a 10% tariff on exports of electric vehicles, due to come into force in January 2024.
You'd have thought that there were some fairly obvious lessons to draw from this debacle, but I'll leave others to draw them. It strikes me as self-evidently better for there to be no trade barriers between the UK and the EU in this, and every other market.
Of course, this is unlikely to be resolved swiftly, given the egos involved.
Bosses warn European Commission president that ‘rules of origin’, which come into force in January, will harm EU production
Graham Watson's insight:
I've spoken about this with my Year 13 sets at some length, highlighting the fact that 7 years after the Brexit vote, there are still trade issues that remain to be resolved in a number of sectors, not least the electric vehicle market.
It seems as though neither UK or EU-based manufacturers wish to see the implementation of rules of origin, due to come into force in January next year. Under this legislation, cars that do not contain enough EU or UK produced components will be subject to a 10% tariff and, in the case of the UK, it's feared that this will deter firms from continuing to invest in the sector.
Fresh signs of weakness in Chinese economy and weak UK and eurozone data spook investors
Graham Watson's insight:
Larry Elliott reflects upon the current state of the global economy, alerting us to the possibility of a global downturn, as weaknesses in Chinese economy and service sector data in Europe and the UK hints at moribund growth, and possibly even worse.
Tata Steel UK's chairman says a "level playing field" is needed for its steelworks to decarbonise.
Graham Watson's insight:
I've put this here because the head of Tata Steel UK's clarion call for more government help to decarbonise is really an international issue - highlighting the impact of the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU's subsequent response and comparing it to the paltry efforts of the UK to match this.
The reality is that post-Brexit, the UK doesn't have the resources to match these interventions, so I'd fully expect steel making in the UK to be under threat.
Editorial: UK policy is to ensure its industry doesn’t suffer collateral damage in the contest for tech supremacy
Graham Watson's insight:
The Guardian's take on the ongoing chip war and the implications of this for the global economy and the UK, whose $1bn support for the sector looks to be somewhat overshadowed by the support packages offered by almost everyone else.
The premise of the article is straight forward. There are no winners in zero-sum games; they have a point. And in trade terms it's unlikely that we'll ever return to the hyperglobalisation of the early 21st century in the near future.
Hailed by Tory MPs as a Brexit benefit, CPTPP membership actually turns the UK into a willing pawn in Washington’s geopolitical game
Graham Watson's insight:
Phillip Inman argues that the announcement of Britain's membership of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), far from being a boon - and a pretty small one at that (0.08% of GDP) - is going to relegate the us to the second rank of trading nations.
Instead of pursuing our own free trade agenda, he argues that we've effectively become a US pawn in the geopolitical game - doing the United States bidding in potentially vetoing China's accession to the trading bloc. We shall see...
Inflation soared in 2022 amid Covid-19, the war in Ukraine and a broken supply chain – but here’s what we can expect next
Graham Watson's insight:
A quick snapshot of US inflation - always worth a peak at other economies, not only is it an inherent part of the IB syllabus but it also provides an interesting frame of reference for looking at your own economy.
It's interesting to note that US inflation peaked in June at 9.1% - lower than UK inflation - and interest rates are currently 4.5% - higher than ours. This might get you thinking - why has the UK had higher inflation than the US, and why is UK monetary policy lagging behind the Federal Reserve, and what are the implications of this?
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Officials interested in deal that would allow two countries to bail each other out in event of shortages
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems as though the UK and Germany are keen to agree a mutual support package for natural gas to shore up supplies for the winter. I'm not sure what Germany's EU partners will make of this, but co-ordinating a deal between two agents is going to be far easier than one involving 20 plus agents.
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EU chief Ursula von der Leyen also calls for windfall taxes on energy companies in a keynote speech.
Graham Watson's insight:
The EU approach to the energy crisis is notably different to that of the UK, with EU chief, Ursula von der Leyen outlining plans to reduce peak time consumption by 5% and also to impose a windfall tax on energy companies.
It will be interesting to see whether our approach of borrowing to protect consumers and less focus on reducing consumption or improving energy efficiency, and no apparent thought of a windfall tax will pay dividends.
In the EU, the contingencies for a trade war with the UK are being put in place
Graham Watson's insight:
I really don't know what to say - add a trade war to the current headwinds, and it's difficult to see who gains.
However, if the UK decides to disregard the Northern Ireland protocol and go down this route, heaven help us. "The longest economic suicide note in history", they said...
The penalties will target £1.7bn of trade to further weaken Vladimir Putin's Ukraine invasion.
Graham Watson's insight:
The UK has announced another round of sanctions on the Russian economy - this time including protectionist tariffs on Russian platinum and palladium - and exports bans on a range of products.
That said, the fact that the metals contribute only £1.7bn to the Russian economy means that the effect of this will only be marginal.
Government says ban is intended to ensure oligarchs and other members of the elite are deprived of goodsRussia-Ukraine war: latest updates
Graham Watson's insight:
The latest UK sanctions on Russia are blocking the sale of luxury goods there; however, despite it being an eye catching headline, Nils Pratley writes in the same newspaper about the relative lack of significance of this move.
To quote: "Total UK exports to Russia in the 12 months to the end of September 2021 amounted to £4.3bn, of which £2.6bn was goods. Cars, the biggest contributor at £386m, will be covered, one assumes, but pharmaceutical products, next in the list, probably won’t be. Either way, a focused hit to trade in the UK’s 26th largest export market, accounting for just 0.7% of total UK exports, is bearable." But designed to have a big economic impact, it ain't.
However, that's not to deny the importance of the symbolism.
Editorial: Britain is pushing for patent changes that could increase the cost of Indian generic drugs, diverting more of the NHS budget to big pharma
Graham Watson's insight:
This is an interesting coda to the ongoing UK-India trade talks that looks at the distributional implications of the deal, with it seeming to be the case that the UK government is looking to enforce intellectual property rights in such a way that generic drugs become more expensive.
If so, it's a trade-off: public health, and largely public spending given the number of exemptions that mean that relatively few people pay for their subscriptions, and the profits of pharmaceutical companies. And given the size of the health budget, you would have thought that such a position isn't in the economy's best interests wouldn't you, not least because big pharma will, I'm sure, be very keen to minimise its tax liabilities.
UK refusing to commit to EU pledge to stop cutting tariffs on big producers despite bananas being as cheap today as three decades ago
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems that the UK is making the most of its post-Brexit 'freedoms' to lower tariff rates on the big Latin American producers despite the fact that bananas are no more expensive than they were three decades ago. The reason this is problematic is because the EU has committed to keep tariffs where they are to protect smaller African producers.
However, the British position has changed because of its membership of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) which has seen it make concessions to Mexican and Peruvian producers.
Higher interest rates and weaker trade, as well as sluggish growth in China, likely to hit big economies
Graham Watson's insight:
The latest OECD economic forecast suggests a slowing of global growth, although only Germany and Argentina are likely to see their economies decline in size this year. However, from the UK's perspective, the fact that our average inflation - predicted to be 7.2% - will be the third highest in the G20 must be a cause for concern.
A deal could be struck within months - but sources say difficult areas of negotiation remain.
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems as though the UK and India are close to signing a trade deal; the UK is keen to get tariff-free access to Indian markets, not least for financial services. On the other hand, India wants the UK to allow more Indian workers into the country.
‘New chapter’ in economic ties means new opportunities for Australian businesses, minister says
Graham Watson's insight:
And here's an Australian perspective on the UK-Australia trade deal: it's now the case that 99% of Australian exports are going to be duty free under the deal, and the Australians think this is going to be good news for the agriculture sector in particular.
Microchips are an issue, of course, but China also makes the alloy wheels our cars mostly roll on. And what about TikTok?
Graham Watson's insight:
This rather bleak article looks at the implications of a war in Taiwan for the UK economy, but let's face it - any war that sees the US and China line up on opposite sides is going to be catastrophic for the global economy too.
The future of the planet and the global economy are entwined in a potentially risky geopolitical game.
Graham Watson's insight:
The BBC eventually looks at the possibility of an UK-US trade war, triggered by the extent to which the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act is seen to subsidise green industry.
It's a fascinating bit of policymaking: can the UK, and the EU, really complain about a government is offering subsidies to sequester carbon and switching to green production? The kicker comes when you realise that the Act is incentivizing purchases of US-made goods and services, but even then you wonder whether the complaint can be justified.
It strikes me that an argument is simply about the fact that all economies would like to have the resources to support their industries in the same fashion. So are we going to launch a trade war primarily on the basis of the fact that the US is wealthier and able to better co-ordinate policy than we are, when the implications of the policy are good for the environment?
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Leaders announce partnership to reduce global dependence on Russian energy
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems that US and the UK are going to try to increase trade between the two, particularly with regard to ensuring energy security, and to reduce dependence upon Russian energy exports. That said, it will be interesting to see how much effect it has: the UK's imports of natural gas from the US have already increased from "3.9bcm of LNG from the US in 2021..." to " 9.7bcm of American LNG, 42% of total imports" in the twelve months up to October 2022.
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Risks to global financial stability are verging on crisis levels, the IMF has warned.
Graham Watson's insight:
Is the UK financial crisis going to trigger a wider global financial crisis? This BBC article suggests that any fallout is likely to be limited, although there has been a rise in the cost of government borrowing in the EU and the US too.
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First meeting in 1975 grappled with the oil shock – now it is Russia’s war in Ukraine creating angst
Graham Watson's insight:
Larry Elliott reflects upon the history seeming to repeat itself. The first meeting of the G7 was in response to the OPEC oil price shock, so it seems appropriate that this weekend's meeting is focused on another energy crisis, in this case the impact of Russia cutting its supply of gas to Europe.
Germany has already had to adopt an emergency gas plan, but the signals from other economies are mixed, with the US and the UK tightening monetary policy. It has to be said - again - that we live in interesting times.
Micheál Martin says he is hopeful he will not have to contemplate tariffs against UK exports.
Graham Watson's insight:
I'm glad the Irish Prime Minister feels like this; unfortunately, it appears that we do want a trade war, and we want one so that we can spin in and try to argue that it's the EU being unreasonable.
Even in these remarkable times, I hope the public will be able to see through the tissue of lies that this represents.
Leading thinktank finds cuts made during pandemic have harmed the UK as well as recipient countries
Graham Watson's insight:
The war in Ukraine has prompted a lot of soul searching and in this instance, the Guardian prompted by campaign group, One, argue that the UK goverment should reinstate its commitment to return aid to the UN recommended level of 0.7% of GDP as soon as possible, in part because of the adverse effects of aid cuts on the world's poorest.
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Both the UK and the US are currently waiting for the next interest rate cut; however, it doesn't seem to be imminent in either economy because in both instances the respective central bank is nervous about the fact that inflation hasn't quite fallen far enough.
In the US inflation is currently 3.4%, but that's still 1.4% higher than the Federal Reserve's medium-term goal of 2%, and there's concern that inflationary pressure hasn't yet been driven out of either economy.