Jerome Powell says disinflationary process ‘has a long way to go' as Biden is set to tout economic record at State of Union address
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems that the US is trying to be clear about the future direction of monetary policy with Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell saying that the disinflationary process has "a long way to go". In short, don't expect interest rates to come down in the immediate future.
From a US perspective, this implies that the Fed is intending to be hawkish and not allow inflationary expectations to remain high. From a global perspective though, it's also bad news for developing economies that have high levels of debt and thus, by definition, high levels of debt interest repayments.
US and European policymakers once believed they had the tools to deal with sluggish recovery
Graham Watson's insight:
Is Europe the new Japan? Certainly, Mohamed El-Erian argues that it's displaying many features of 'Japanification': weak growth, disinflation and perpetually low interest rates.
He goes onto suggest that the solutions to these problems are tough - requiring prompt action and political consensus, and that the latter is, unfortunately, difficult to secure.
Inflation was 6.5% in December, easing for the sixth month in a row as petrol and fruit prices fell.
Graham Watson's insight:
US inflation has fallen for the sixth month in a row - expect something similar to happen in the UK in the near future. However, critics have wondered whether this is going to see any change in the conduct of monetary policy, and, looking further ahead, it will be interesting to see where inflation settles after the effects of the Ukraine-related supply-side shocks work through the economy.
One thing worthy of note is the following line - "Some items such as oranges and bananas even saw outright price falls in December compared with November" which starts to make clear the difference between disinflation and deflation. The former is when there's been a fall in the rate of inflation, but prices are still rising; the latter is when prices are falling.
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It seems that the US is trying to be clear about the future direction of monetary policy with Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell saying that the disinflationary process has "a long way to go". In short, don't expect interest rates to come down in the immediate future.
From a US perspective, this implies that the Fed is intending to be hawkish and not allow inflationary expectations to remain high. From a global perspective though, it's also bad news for developing economies that have high levels of debt and thus, by definition, high levels of debt interest repayments.