As railway staff, lorry drivers, farmers and others threaten to strike, we examine the challenges the country faces
Graham Watson's insight:
As a 50-year old economist, it seems odd to be writing that Germany is the "sick man of Europe" but it seems that this is where we are. The German economy is growing at a slower rate than the UK, and it seems that the government is struggling to fix it.
It seems that Germany is suffering from a range of structural issues: an ageing population, low levels of investment and declining infrastructure as well as the limited role out of digital services all mean that the economy might be the only G7 member to shrink in 2023.
Now Modi’s government has modernised it must make growth sustainable, inclusive and fair
Graham Watson's insight:
This in an interesting article, highlighting the fact that India is now the most populous nation in the world, and potentially the source of massive growth in the next few years.
However, Nouriel Roubini notes that although it appears to be on the point of becoming a major economic power, there are still a number of structural issues that require tackling: the power of its successful conglomerates and their ability to influence economic policy in their self-interest; the high levels of protectionism that remain; an increased focus on higher-value added, and more innovative sectors of the economy rather than simply labour-intensive sectors.
Decades of bailouts have convinced some that the Fed will always come to the rescue – but this only papers over the fundamental flaws of the US economy
Graham Watson's insight:
An interesting perspective on the nature of US policymaking, and the problems facing the US economy. It's nice to know that the conclusions are strangely familiar: a period of low interest rates and QE has meant that we've come through the post-financial crisis and the pandemic but by the same token, it's meant that we've overlooked the structural problems that currently exist.
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The South Asian nation is facing its worst economic crisis since independence from the UK in 1948.
Graham Watson's insight:
The sorry state of the Sri Lankan economy pains me - as someone who lived there for three years, and can still sing the Sri Lankan national anthem.
The country is experiencing extended power cuts, lacks fuel and the once-buoyant tourist sector is on its knees, as the country lacks foreign exchange to buy these items. As a result, the rupee has depreciated significantly, and this adds further cost pressures for both exporters and consumers alike.
However, the real issues are deep-seated - arguably, Sri Lanka has been badly governed for many years - with the democracy still in the hands of a narrow clique of dynastic politicians who've dominated the country for many, many years. And until this is resolved, I find it highly unlikely that the country will be able to move on.
US and European policymakers once believed they had the tools to deal with sluggish recovery
Graham Watson's insight:
Is Europe the new Japan? Certainly, Mohamed El-Erian argues that it's displaying many features of 'Japanification': weak growth, disinflation and perpetually low interest rates.
He goes onto suggest that the solutions to these problems are tough - requiring prompt action and political consensus, and that the latter is, unfortunately, difficult to secure.
This comes as the crisis-hit nation received financial support from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Graham Watson's insight:
The IMF has approved a $3bn bailout package for Pakistan, including an initial tranche of $1.2bn , as well as substantial funds from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Pakistan's economy faces a number of challenges: sluggish growth, official inflation of 30% and interest rates of around 22%, and a lack of foreign exchange. That said, the country has received more than 20 loans from international financial organisation which rather implies ongoing structural problems, not least high levels of corruption.
Ben Chu, Newsnight's economic editor, takes a closer look at the country's economic woes.
Graham Watson's insight:
A nation close to my heart, where many friends still live; the fate of Sri Lanka will always affect me, and the latest Newsnight coverage of the island's financial crisis is salutary.
Despite agreeing, in principle, an IMF bailout, this is contingent upon restructuring billions of dollars of bilateral debt, with India and China, and even then, the economy has a myriad structural issues to tackle.
A trade imbalance, such that the trade deficit is currently running at 6% per year, and there's a pressing need to export more is the root cause of much of the misery, although there's also a seeming lack of coherent policy initiatives to tackle the issue. Factor in heavily protected domestic markets, in large part to protect vested interests, and there's probably a need to liberalise the economy is there's to be light at the end of the tunnel.
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Business and political elite embraced new ethos at WEF without reflecting on past mistakes
Graham Watson's insight:
Joseph Stiglitz argues that Davos 2022 represents another missed opportunity - yet another - to reflect on the existing global order and it's weaknesses. He argues that, in part, this reveals the myopia of an organisation still uncritically committed to globalisation but with little willingness to tackle the structural issues that remain.
He highlights broken global supply chains, issues with food and energy production and an intellectual property regime that has allowed pharmaceutical companies to profit from the pandemic. Does the new world order need to go beyond the previous model and re-invent itself.
We must act now to stop the pandemic inflicting long-term damage, says the head of the IMF
Graham Watson's insight:
The Head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva writes in the Guardian flagging up concerns that the pandemic could leave significant scarring effects on the poorest economies unless the developed world takes concerted action.
She argues that three things need doing: prioritising health to ensure a sustain exit from the pandemic; focussing on key economic facets to overcome structural weaknesses, such as ensuring that education is protected; using the opportunity to refocus future growth on ensuring sustainable recovery via policies sensitive to climate change concerns.
Flaws in the global economy that led to the 2008 financial crisis were papered over rather than dealt with
Graham Watson's insight:
Yesterday's Observer business leader gives a pessimistic view of the state of the global economy, arguing that the financial crisis reflects a missed opportunity, with many of the changes made superficial and failing to deal with deep-seated structural issues. It's well worth a read - and may well be right.
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As a 50-year old economist, it seems odd to be writing that Germany is the "sick man of Europe" but it seems that this is where we are. The German economy is growing at a slower rate than the UK, and it seems that the government is struggling to fix it.
It seems that Germany is suffering from a range of structural issues: an ageing population, low levels of investment and declining infrastructure as well as the limited role out of digital services all mean that the economy might be the only G7 member to shrink in 2023.